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2024-12-14 00:33:06

Today's key financial news reminds us (the following are all Beijing time) that ① the total amount of M2 money supply, new RMB loans and financing in China in November may be released; ② At 15: 00, Andrew Hauser, Assistant Chairman of Reserve Bank of Australia, gave a speech at ABE Annual Banquet; ③ Time to be determined: OPEC publishes monthly crude oil market report; 4 21: 30 US CPI; in November; ⑤ At 22: 45, the Bank of Canada issued a policy interest rate; ⑥ At 23: 30, us energy information administration (EIA) released the weekly report of government crude oil inventory; 7. The next day at 03:00, the U.S. government budget for November; (8) Adobe released a performance report after the US stock market closed; 9 At 05:30 the next day, the Brazilian central bank announced the Selic policy interest rate; Attending the speech of Assistant Chairman Jones of Reserve Bank of Australia at 06:15 the next day.The rapid rise of long-term debt reflects the hot sentiment in the bond market. On December 10th, the transaction interest rate of the 10-year active bond "240011" further dropped to 1.84%, hitting a record low. By the close of the day, treasury bonds futures rose across the board, and the main contract of representative 10-year treasury bonds futures hit a record high. Experts said that the loose expectation of monetary policy and the strong demand for institutional allocation constitute an important supporting factor for the recent bond market to continue to go bullish. But at the same time, as bond prices rise and yields fall, market volatility may also rise. (CSI)The crude oil futures of the previous issue closed up 0.25% at 530.8 yuan/barrel at night. Shanghai Gold closed up 0.67% at 626.52 yuan/g, and Shanghai Bank closed up 0.15% at 7962 yuan/kg.


The United States has approved the sale of arms facilities worth nearly 600 million US dollars to Kuwait and Ukraine. The US Department of Defense said in a statement that the State Council has approved the sale of vehicle maintenance equipment with an estimated value of 300 million US dollars to Kuwait. On the same day, it also approved the sale of F-16 fighter maintenance services and related equipment to the Ukrainian government at a cost of US$ 266.4 million.Market information: US President Biden seeks to veto once and for all the merger of Nippon Steel (Nippon Steel) and American Steel Company (X).Japanese Reuters's short-term non-manufacturing boom judgment index in December is 30, with the previous value of 19; Reuters's short-term judgment index of manufacturing prosperity in December was -1, with the previous value of 5.


The rapid rise of long-term debt reflects the hot sentiment in the bond market. On December 10th, the transaction interest rate of the 10-year active bond "240011" further dropped to 1.84%, hitting a record low. By the close of the day, treasury bonds futures rose across the board, and the main contract of representative 10-year treasury bonds futures hit a record high. Experts said that the loose expectation of monetary policy and the strong demand for institutional allocation constitute an important supporting factor for the recent bond market to continue to go bullish. But at the same time, as bond prices rise and yields fall, market volatility may also rise. (CSI)The New Zealand dollar just hit the 0.5800 mark against the US dollar, and the latest report was 0.5800, down 1.08% in the day.The "Debt Bull" was launched, and a number of treasury bonds futures reached new highs. According to the analysis, the downward trend of broad-spectrum interest rates is expected to continue to support the bull market in the bond market. On December 10, 30-year, 10-year, 5-year and 2-year treasury bonds futures all hit record highs. Looking at it for a long time, since the beginning of this year, 30-year treasury bond futures have risen by nearly 16%, 10-year treasury bond futures have risen by over 5%, and 5-year treasury bond futures have risen by over 3%. Analysts pointed out that the logic of broad-spectrum interest rate downward has run through the whole year of 2024, and it is expected to continue to form an important support for the bond market in the long run. The recent market strength is not only an emotional effect at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, but also a blocking point to dredge and guide the overall downward trend of interest rates. Shen Wanhongyuan believes that in the short term, profit-taking behavior may increase after the low interest rate, but this is not the core factor that dominates the market. Shen Wanhongyuan said that the rate cut of policy interest rate in 2025 may not be less than 30 basis points. After the deployment of relevant important meetings at the end of the year, specific policies may be gradually implemented in the first quarter of next year. According to Huaxi Securities, looking forward to 2025, the rate of single RRR cut and interest rate cut of monetary policy may not be less than 50 basis points and 20 basis points (the rate in 2024). (Securities Times)

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